One of the most observed indicators in the crypto market — the ratio Bitcoin to gold — has dropped to a multi-year low. Today one bitcoin can be exchanged for approximately 15,9 ounces of gold, whereas during peak periods this number was much higher. From the highs of the end of 2024, the ratio has decreased by about 60%.

The reason for the discrepancy is clear: while Bitcoin was correcting from its October high in $126 000, gold was confidently updating historical records, exceeding the mark in $5 500 per ounce amid geopolitical tension and steady demand from central banks. Investors traditionally choose gold as a defensive asset during periods of uncertainty, while Bitcoin is still perceived by the market as a risky instrument.

This is where the interesting part begins. Analyst Michael van de Poppe noted that the current 70% ratio drawdown is close to the historic lows of past bear cycles: in 2014 it was 86%, in 2018 — 83%, in 2022 — 76%. Each time after reaching such levels Bitcoin entered a prolonged phase of outperforming growth relative to gold.

A similar picture is painted by structural analysis. In August 2020, gold reached its then record — and Bitcoin immediately rolled back by 21%. In January 2026, history repeated itself: gold updated its maximum, BTC lost about 33%. In both cases, this phase was followed by a rotation of liquidity back into high-risk assets.

Analysts emphasize: current ratio levels are in the zone where historically the best average entry prices for long-term investors are formed. This is not a guarantee of an immediate reversal, but statistically — one of the most favorable moments for gradual accumulation of position. As one analyst aptly noted: «Historically, buying in periods of fear has been more effective than buying in euphoria».

#Bitcoin
#BTC
#gold
#ratio
#bearmarket
#cycle
#cryptocurrency
#cryptomarket
#Brick